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Thinking about Elections

Scenario Planning for Election Interference
Posted By: Juliet Zavon
Posted On: 2026-02-26T05:00:00Z

SEIZING BALLOT BOXES!! It's easy to list what might happen to disrupt the midterms, but it's unbalanced without the context of election security preparations and planning. Without that context, there are only fears. To be sure, election administration is under stress, but election officials, attorneys, courts, and others are preparing in meaningful ways. This isn’t the first time.


Key to handling emergencies is resilience that comes from scenario planning. If ABC happens, how do we respond? I’ve thought about this for swing state PA, my home.


What targets and what timing?


Lots of Republicans are running for office. They want to be legitimately elected. Why would the feds seize ballot boxes (i.e., scanners) at a polling place before the tallies are in? What would that prove? Wouldn’t they first want to know if the Republican(s) won or if the election was close?  My county has >700 polling locations--which ones are targets and why? What criteria?


Or would the feds go to the Elections Division central location, the warehouse? The scanners don't get picked up from the polling places for several days, so would they wait till then? Is it about the functioning of the scanners, or would they seek the ballots? If so, when--before or after all the ballots are counted? Provisional ballots aren't processed until the Friday after the election, and military ballots can legally come in after election day.


What evidence would courts require to grant warrants to seize ballots before the tally is complete?


In deciding to seize ballots and/or scanners, does it matter whether Republicans won specific races or which races were close? 


Scenario planning breaks “fear” into component parts that can be addressed on a practical level.


https://theconversation.com/how-a-largely-forgotten-supreme-court-case-can-help-prevent-an-executive-branch-takeover-of-federal-elections-275603