ICE AT THE POLLS. How can we evaluate the risk? Here are some insights from Democracy Project:
“The scenario paints an ominous picture of agents descending on Election Day to disrupt voting. But that picture hinges on a dated model of voting habits. In November 2024, only 37.4% of Americans voted on Election Day, 35.2% voted early in person, and 30.3% voted by mail. In Arizona, roughly 80% of the vote comes from early ballots, and in Georgia, early in-person voting accounts for the majority of the votes. California, the state many assume will be ground zero for ICE, is overwhelmingly vote-by-mail. Election Day isn’t what it used to be.
“The shift away from Election Day is starkest for naturalized citizens – a presumed demographic target of ICE-at-the-polls. In 2024, naturalized citizens voted by mail at a rate nearly 8 points higher than native-born citizens. Ironically, if the administration mobilized ICE on Election Day, those officers would disproportionately encounter American-born Republican voters.
“Compliance with the law hasn’t been a defining feature of the Trump administration. Nonetheless, the law matters, and federal law is ill-disposed to aggressive ICE presence at voting locations… Then there’s state law…every state’s laws outlaw voter intimidation, typically by making it a crime…
“In Bexar County, Texas, during the state’s primary, nine ICE agents filled a voting location’s parking lot. The county’s sheriff arrived and told them to get lost. They did. A similar story unfolded outside a Simi Valley, California voting location…
“The Democratic Party wouldn’t sit on its hands. Their ever-present legal pitbull Marc Elias would have a field day. If ICE showed up in an intimidating manner to a voting location, I’d bet that a well-drafted lawsuit would be filed within the hour. Furthermore, ICE’s presence, however short-lived, might be grounds for extending polling location hours..."
Quoted from the article at the link. Excellent analysis.
https://democracyproject.org/posts/ice-at-the-polls-not-the-hottest-election-threat